SpaceX Beats Revenue Estimates in First Public Earnings, But Stock Falls on $18.4 Billion AI Spending
SpaceX posted its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday, August 4, beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations with 92% year-over-year growth — but the stock fell as much as 11% anyway, as investors focused on a sharp jump in capital spending and a looming insider share lockup that could flood the market with new supply.
The Numbers
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion in the same quarter last year and up 66% sequentially from $4.69 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Wall Street Times. That figure beat analyst expectations, which had ranged from roughly $6.88 billion to $6.9 billion depending on the source.
The company’s net loss came in narrower than expected: SpaceX posted a loss of $0.09 per share, well ahead of analyst forecasts that had ranged from $0.23 to $0.26 per share, according to TradingKey. In dollar terms, CoinDesk reported the net loss at $541 million for the quarter, alongside adjusted EBITDA that nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
Why the Stock Fell Anyway
Despite beating on both revenue and per-share losses, investors zeroed in on one figure that came in well above expectations: capital expenditures. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the second quarter, compared to analyst expectations of roughly $13 billion, according to FX Leaders — and up sharply from $10.1 billion in the first quarter, according to the Wall Street Times. Roughly three-quarters of that spending was directed toward AI infrastructure, according to FX Leaders’ reporting.
Shares had actually risen about 9% during Tuesday’s regular trading session, reaching $125, before reversing sharply in after-hours trading once the capex figures were disclosed, according to the Wall Street Times. CoinDesk reported the stock fell 11% in pre-market trading the following morning as investors continued digesting the spending disclosure alongside the looming lockup expiration.
Starlink Remains the Financial Engine
Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet business, continued to be the company’s primary source of steady revenue. Subscribers crossed 12 million during the quarter, roughly doubling from a year earlier and up 17% from the first quarter, according to CNBC. Musk described the service’s improvement on the earnings call, saying Starlink had offered only “patchy” connectivity in its early days but now delivers “incredible uptime and low latency,” positioning it as a primary internet provider for businesses and government agencies rather than just a backup option.
Even so, growth in Starlink’s average revenue per subscriber told a more mixed story: ARPU fell 22% year-over-year, according to the Wall Street Times, as international expansion into markets with lower price points diluted the segment’s overall pricing. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens projected Starlink revenue growth of 93% for all of 2026, a deceleration from 229% growth in 2025, according to TradingKey.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen struck an optimistic tone on the earnings call regardless, saying the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year, according to CNBC. He also disclosed that SpaceX had contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud services revenue in the first few weeks of the current quarter, set to begin ramping starting in October.
The Looming Lockup Expiration
Compounding the market’s reaction to the spending numbers is a major structural event just days away. Starting Thursday, August 6, up to 911.5 million shares — roughly 20% of the early-release eligible insider pool — become eligible for sale, according to Yahoo Finance, with a total value of approximately $107 to $109 billion depending on the share price used for the calculation. Additional tranches of about 7% each are scheduled to unlock in stages through late October, with the primary 180-day lockup period expiring around December 8, 2026.
Yahoo Finance’s analysis noted that once the full lockup period expires, the tradable float could expand from roughly 4-5% of shares outstanding to approximately 40% — a dramatic shift in available supply that could pressure the stock independent of the company’s underlying financial performance. Elon Musk’s own stake, roughly 6.4 billion shares, is excluded from this accelerated schedule and remains under a separate, longer 366-day lockup extending to around June 2027.
With short interest already above 30% of the float heading into the earnings report, according to Yahoo Finance, the combination of disappointing capex optics and imminent lockup-driven supply has created what analysts describe as a technical setup where selling pressure could intensify regardless of the underlying quality of SpaceX’s results.
Context: A Rocky Post-IPO Stretch
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, in what the Wall Street Times described as the largest initial public offering in history, raising $85.7 billion. The stock reached an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 before entering a sustained decline that pushed it below its IPO price by late July — meaning even Tuesday’s pre-earnings rally to $125 left shares below where they debuted.
FAQ
Did SpaceX beat or miss earnings expectations? It beat on both revenue ($7.81 billion versus roughly $6.9 billion expected) and per-share losses ($0.09 versus an expected $0.23 to $0.26), but the stock still fell due to unexpectedly high capital spending.
Why did the stock fall despite beating estimates? Investors focused on capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, well above the roughly $13 billion analysts expected, with about three-quarters of that spending directed toward AI infrastructure.
How many Starlink subscribers does SpaceX have? More than 12 million as of the second quarter, roughly double the total from a year earlier.
What is the share lockup expiration, and when does it happen? Starting August 6, 2026, roughly 911.5 million shares (about 20% of the early-release eligible insider pool) become eligible for sale, worth an estimated $107 to $109 billion, adding potential selling pressure to the stock.
Is Elon Musk affected by this lockup expiration? No. Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion-share stake is on a separate, longer lockup schedule that extends to around June 2027.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s first quarter as a public company delivered exactly the kind of split verdict that’s become common across this earnings season for AI-heavy companies: strong top-line growth overshadowed by investor anxiety over how much is being spent to sustain it. With a massive lockup expiration landing just two days after the earnings release and short interest already elevated, the stock’s near-term path is likely to be shaped as much by structural supply dynamics as by the underlying strength of Starlink’s subscriber growth or the company’s AI ambitions.
Sources: CBS News, CNBC, CoinDesk, Wall Street Times, Yahoo Finance, TradingKey, FX Leaders (reporting dated August 4-5, 2026).