July Jobs Report Due Today — Economists Expect 85,000 New Jobs After a Rocky Few Months
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its closely watched July employment report today, Friday, August 7, at 8:30 a.m. ET, capping a week of mixed labor market signals that have left economists and investors uncertain about whether the U.S. job market is merely cooling or losing more momentum than expected.
What Economists Are Expecting
As a group, economists surveyed ahead of today’s release expect the U.S. to have added 85,000 new jobs in July, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, according to Kiplinger’s survey of Wall Street forecasts. Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams offered a similar view heading into the report, projecting a 95,000 increase and describing labor market conditions as having been “little changed” in July, consistent with the roughly 92,000 average monthly payroll growth seen over the first half of 2026.
If job growth comes in around that pace or higher, some economists believe the unemployment rate could gradually edge lower in the months ahead, with Adams projecting it could close out 2026 near 4%.
Why June’s Report Rattled Confidence
Today’s report arrives with added scrutiny after June’s numbers came in well short of expectations. The BLS reported on July 2 that the economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, far below the roughly 100,000 to 115,000 jobs economists had forecast, according to multiple outlets tracking the release. Compounding the disappointment, the agency also revised April and May’s job totals down by a combined 74,000 jobs.
Kiplinger’s David Payne offered some context for the weak June number, noting it partly reflected “payback” for unusually strong growth in the preceding three months, and was driven substantially by a pullback in hotel and food service employment rather than a broad-based slowdown across the economy.
This Week’s Additional Warning Sign
Adding to the uncertainty heading into today’s release, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday that private employers added just 44,000 jobs in July, down sharply from a downwardly revised 95,000 in June and below the 75,000 economists had expected for that report specifically. Nearly all of ADP’s July gains came from healthcare-related industries, continuing a pattern that has held for much of 2026, while goods-producing industries actually lost jobs during the month.
It’s worth noting that ADP and BLS figures are calculated using different methodologies and don’t always move together, so ADP’s report offers a directional signal rather than a reliable prediction of today’s official number.
The Bigger Picture Heading Into Today
Beyond the headline payroll figures, several underlying trends have shaped the narrative around this year’s labor market. The June BLS report found that roughly 1.9 million Americans were classified as long-term unemployed — out of work 27 weeks or more — accounting for more than 27% of all unemployed people. At the same time, initial jobless claims have remained historically low, at 215,000 for the week ending July 4, suggesting employers are largely avoiding layoffs even as new hiring slows — a pattern economists have described as a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.
The June household survey also showed a decline in labor force participation, down 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%, alongside a drop in the employment-population ratio — signs that some of the apparent stability in the unemployment rate has come from people leaving the labor force rather than finding new jobs.
Why Today’s Number Matters for the Fed
The Federal Reserve is watching today’s report closely as it weighs its next steps on interest rates following its decision to hold rates steady at its late-July meeting — a decision that saw unusually public disagreement among the Fed’s own policymakers, with three regional bank presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike. A weaker-than-expected jobs number today could reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum, while a stronger report could ease pressure on the Fed and potentially support the case for continued rate stability heading into its September meeting.
FAQ
When is the July jobs report released? Friday, August 7, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What are economists expecting? Roughly 85,000 new jobs added in July, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Kiplinger.
How did June’s jobs report perform relative to expectations? Poorly. The economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the roughly 100,000-115,000 economists expected, with April and May’s figures also revised down by a combined 74,000.
What did this week’s ADP report show? Private employers added just 44,000 jobs in July, below expectations, with nearly all gains concentrated in healthcare — an early, if imperfect, signal ahead of today’s more comprehensive government report.
Why does today’s report matter for interest rates? The Federal Reserve uses employment data as a key input for its rate decisions. A weak report could reinforce concerns about economic slowing, while a stronger number could support the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at its September meeting.
Conclusion
Today’s jobs report lands at a moment of genuine uncertainty about the U.S. labor market’s trajectory, following a disappointing June reading and a soft ADP preview this week. Whether the July numbers confirm a deeper slowdown or represent a rebound back toward the year’s earlier pace will shape not just market reaction today, but also the tone of the debate heading into the Fed’s September meeting.
Sources: Kiplinger, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Trading Economics, Economic Policy Institute (reporting dated August 5-7, 2026, ahead of the official July jobs report release).